Rapid growth in the mining industry, increased investor interest in primary silver mines, and the strong rise in silver prices since 2005 have significantly boosted primary silver production over the past few years. Primary silver mine production increased from 19.0% of total mine production in 2008 to 23.2% in 2011. Primary silver producers’ cash costs also have risen over the past few years as well, with 2011 showing the strongest year-on-year change in the past decade. The production-weighted annual average silver cash cost was $8.28 in 2011, a 40.6% increase over the previous year. Much of this increase was due to lower ore grades being mined as producers opted to take advantage of high silver prices, high mining input materials inflation due to the rapid expansion of the mining industry and consequent strong growth in demand for mining equipment and materials, and the commissioning of four new primary silver mines.
Silver fabrication demand rose to 861.9 million ounces in 2011, a 2.2% increase over the previous year, according to the Silver Yearbook 2012. This was the second consecutive annual increase after having trended lower since 2005. Most of the 18.4 million ounce increase between 2010 and 2011 came from higher silver demand from the photovoltaics industry. Demand from this industry rose by 11.2 million ounces last year. The rapid increases in solar panel installations, government incentive programs, and high non-renewable energy prices all contributed to an increase in solar panel production, which was positive for silver demand. Demand from this industry is set to decline in 2012 due to a significant slowdown in end-product demand from Europe, the largest installer of solar panels.
Electronics demand also rose substantially, by 4.3%, to 221.8 million ounces in 2011. Jewelry demand continued to rise, benefiting from higher gold prices which have helped redirect a portion of jewelry purchases to silver. Photography demand continued to fall, dropping 7.5% in 2011 to total 102.6 million ounces. Demand from this source is expected to fall below 100 million ounces in 2012.
The CPM Silver Yearbook 2012 also contains information about silver inventories, a major component of the silver market, as well as a detailed analysis of silver futures, options, and over the counter trading activity. The volume of silver traded during 2011, which includes trading volumes of futures and options at the major exchanges, clearing volumes in the London over the counter market, and newly refined silver supply, reached 182.4 billion ounces last year, up 56.7% from the previous year. This the highest level of trading activity on record.
Last year was a pivotal one for the silver market, perhaps a turning point. CPM Group posits that silver prices will not break above their 2011 peak in 2012, but rather will decline further throughout the remainder of the year. The Silver Yearbook 2012 provides extensive data and information about all aspects of the silver market as well as an in-depth analysis of these market components and how they factor into CPM Group’s projections for lower prices in the medium term.
These are just some of the findings in CPM Group’s Silver Yearbook 2012. The 211-page hard-bound report provides detailed statistics on trends in each sector of the silver market in 2011, with insights into developments this year.
CPM Group has been producing annual Yearbooks on gold, silver, and platinum group metals, in a series of reports that began in 1971. This year’s reports are being published by Euromoney Books and Metal Bulletin. This year’s reviews have been priced at $150.00 plus shipping and handling to make them readily available to individual investors as well as institutions, corporations, and governments.
CPM Group is an independent commodities research, consulting and corporate advisory company headquartered in New York.